Thursday, August 29, 2019

Algorithms: The New Props for Humankind

Did  our forefathers, the hunters and gatherers,  hear better and smell better? Probably yes, alludes  Yuval Harari.  Because their survival depended on being aware of strange, hidden, prowling  dangers. Later, as hunters settled down to be farmers, life styles changed, acute sense of smell and hearing was  no longer needed and hence  eventually lost.  Yuval Harari in his  voluminous books The Sapiens and the Homo Deuscautions us that  we stand to  lose  our power of cognition, perception and  intuition because  we are steadily outsourcing  these mental exercises  to machines and trusting their decisions implicitly. 

True, but only when dealing with huge volumes of data.  Algorithmic analyses  with their powerful pattern finding and predictive ability have become  great enablers in diverse research  fields.  A computer algorithm can in a jiffy sift through  millions of details and arrive at  the most objective decision.  Elizabeth Honig, Art Historian  at the University of California, Berkeley ropes in  the help of algorithms   to identify the  original from fake among  art pieces. Specialists in Computer Vision and Machine Learning  consider this  a win-win situation because such  exercises challenge and sharpen  an algorithm's pattern matching ability thus  making AI  an enormously powerful tool.  

Tomasev et al   too followed the same path  to  develop  a clinical tool to predict impending kidney failure. Deep Learning is an algorithm commonly used  to identify patterns in huge data sets. Tomasev and team collected well over 6 billion data points  from multiple sources from   700,000 anonymised  patients spread over 5 years - 2011 to 2015.  Special programs such as   recurrent neural network and ablation analysis were incorporated in the data analysis. Tomasev and colleagues could  register a prediction  accuracy of 84% for serious damage 90% for eventual dialysis treatment . However this retrospective analysis has to be upgraded to prospective mode.  

But there has to be checks and balances cautions, Patrick Riley Principal Engineer and Senior researcher at the Google Accelerated Science team at Google. "Many algorithms are so complicated that it is impossible to inspect all the parameters or reasons about how the inputs have been manipulated.  As these  algorithms begin    to be applied ever more widely, risks of misinterpretations, erroneous conclusions and wasted scientific efforts will spiral" he says
 
Alan Turing 1951 Courtesy: Wikipedia 


TAILPIECE:
Father of modern computing science, Alan Turing will be seen in the new £50 notes to be issued by Bank of England.   Much maligned during his life time for being gay, he  died (or committed suicide, some believe) in 1954.  Six decades later in 2013,  he was exonerated  off all blemishes by the British Queen. 


References:
1. Sapiens : A Brief History of Humankind-  Yuval Noah Harari , Harvill Secker, London 2014
2. Homo Deus :A Brief History of Tomorrow-   Yuval Noah Harari, Vintage Publications 2017 
3. Art Attribution: AI enters the fra-y  David Adams,  Nature: 13 June 2019, vol.570, pp161-162
4A clinically applicable approach to continuous prediction of future acute kidney failure :  
    Tomasev et al Nature  1 Aug. 2019, Vol.572, pp116-119
5. Three pitfalls to avoid in machine learning.: Patrick Riley, Nature, 1 Aug.2019, vol.572,  
   pp27-28.
6Alan Turing to be the face of new £50 note