Sunday, May 20, 2012

ICE ICE, BABY


 (View from Gulmarg: Photo taken on 13 May 2012 by PRC
It was not so long ago that we received a severe jolt  from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) that  the Himalayan glaciers  will be disappearing into thin year by roughly 2035.  This meant  serious  repercussions. Possibility of   rivers of Indian Peninsula and China, which originate from these glaciers, drying up, loomed large.  What an  unimaginable socio cultural, economic  and geopolitical  crises this would lead to ?  2035 is too close  a time frame  for comfort    and there  was frenzy all around.  I am sure there might have an unprecedented rush to visit the holy shrines and scenic places in the Himalayas before it was too late.    Fortunately for everybody , the preposterous hypothetical prediction was soon withdrawn,  with the  explanation that all parameters  that   govern the waxing and waning of glaciers  were not taken into account.   

Though almost akin to bank balance it is indeed it is very difficult to monitor the  credit and debit pattern in ( or of) glaciers.  Credit  accrual  is when snow fall and avalanche get deposited and  debit is through melting  and caving.   But  these don’t appear as neat line items on adjacent columns as in a bank passbook,  so that we can check out the balance easily.   (In a way it is as unpredictable as  foretelling the occurrence of  puddles  that  rains leave behind  along the length and breadth of  Bangalore roads. ).   Sure  there are so many unknown debits and credits, but then there  is so much of balance  as of now that we needn’t worry for the time being.  Still there are causes for concern.  Because  aren’t there  instances,  when family  wealth,  accumulated over generations, is often splashed away  by spendthrift  great grand children in a jiffy?

Hence it cannot be denied that global warming will  adversely affect the glaciers, however imperceptibly it might be.   Attempts  are being made by several scientific groups globally  to study this . Bolch et al (1) in the April 20th issue of Science ask the pertinent question: How can we  make periodic,  three dimensional (length, depth and area) inventory of the  glaciers?.  In their opinion, location observatories, coupled with   remote sensing  techniques  and accurate modeling  would be one step forward.  Just as  the high and mighty Himalayas, Antarctic ice sheets   too  are  sending faint yet  sure signals of melting.  Pritchard et al ( 2) draw our attention to the fact that  the  repercussions may be felt   in a time frame of decades,  as an  infintesimal yet definite  increase in sea level.

Warm climates have ushered in  other unexpected ecological changes, so Pauli et al (3)would like us to believe.  Over a seven year period the team  monitored the  biodiversity (floral) across major mountain ranges in Europe.  The results seem to justify their  hypothesis that global warming might  drive plant species up the  mountain slopes. It would indeed be interesting to conduct a similar study along the Himalayan slopes.  First in the series should be " Is the Valley of Flowers receding ?"  Would be exciting to be part of such a scientific expedition.  

Europe has been closely monitoring  Mother Earth , through its eyes in the sky the  ENVISAT.   Since  2002 this satellite has been  providing European Space Agency (ESA)  with the vital statistics of Earth through a variety of multiply enabled instruments.  ESA received signals from ENVISAT till 8th of April 2012.  Since then there has been no contacts.  The implications are that the satellite's main computer or the power up system  might have failed. This has crippled a lot of agencies who are dependent on data from ENVISAT (4) 
Tailpiece :
Read about an interesting experiment to protect the glaciers of Alps.  Those concerned decided to  insulate them by wrapping them in  blankets ! 

References :
1.The state and fate of Himalayan Glaciers : Bolch et al  Science 20th April 2012, Vol. 336, pages 310-314
2.. Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basam melting of ice shelves : Pritchard et al  Nature 26th April 2012, Vol. 484 pages 502-505
3. Recent plant diversity changes on Europe’s mountain summits: Pauli et al  Science 20 April 2012, Vol. 336, pages 353- 355.
4. Europe loses sight of Earth : Brumfiel, Nature 26th April 2012, Vol. 484, page 423

4. Europe loses sight of Earth : Brumfiel, Nature 26th April 2012, Vol. 484, page 423