Climate Change : Are we prepared?

Published in JFWTC inhouse Journal Vol3 Issue 4 2007

Whichever way we look at it, the picture is dismal.  In a single stroke “climate change” has turned the picture of future  bleak  with just grey and black.  Be it the Amazonian forests in South America or the e Western Ghats in south western India,  experts say we are on the brink of losing it all.  Minute upward variations in temperature  portend cataclysmic  consequences.

Malhi etal in the 11^th January issue of Science analyzes the combined effects of climate change and deforestation on the precious  ecoheritage of Amazonian forests.  These forests are essential drivers  of the hydrological cycles over the whole of northern hemispheres in particular and global in general (the  El Nino effect).  If  climate change  is the sum of multiple activities not easily comprehended, contained or controlled, could we at least  put a check on defrorestation?  Malhi et al give us  alarming figures arrived at in 2001.    837,000km²  of forests cleared for pastures, soybean production and other human activities.  Containing deforestation alone thus looks to be the immediate first step.   But  how effectively can we do it?

Some of our good intentions could actually bring about alarmingly opposite results. For example the effort to switch to biofuels to contain emissions.  The case for greener biofuels   seems to be  actually askew.  Benefit calculations of biofuels  are based on  greenhouse gas emissions  alone  and don’t take into consideration the entire crop cycle and its effect on the ecosystem.  William Laurance  of  Smithsonian  Tropical research Institute, Balboa, Panama, describes a rather convoluted situation.   Governmental subsidies are luring American farmers to  switch  from Soy to Corn.   Result ?  Scarcity in the global market place drives Soy prices high and Brazilian farmers with an eye for profit  are losing no time in  clearing large stretches of Amazonian forests for cultivating soy.  So when we complete a full circle are we really achieving what we intended to achieve?  Is there a real winner?  

Two very recent publications in the 29^th Feb. issue of Science  confirm our worst fears.  Calculations done by  Timothy Searchinger  of Princeton University  and his team show that we will be very much in the red if  crop lands become biofuels farms. It would take  us upto several centuries to pay up for this “carbon debt.”   In the same issue  Joseph Fargione  and his team  presents results  which  concur  with this observation.

That brings us  to the question of how climate change would affect the food situation.

Here we have an added challenge: increasing population. We are perhaps fast approaching the Malthusian limits.  Urbanization is progressively encroaching into land available for cultivation.   Food crops will take time to adapt to variations in temperature and rain fall and the immediate result would be a decline in the production.   Lobell et al  cautions that by 2030 we will be in a critical situation with respect to food security.  The  situation in the geographical regions of    South Asia, China and South East Asia  collectively with  a total of over 500 million malnourished people  is at a greater risk.   Rice is the staple food in this region.  Rice cultivation requires plenty of water and is heavily dependent on seasonal rains.  With temperature on the upward trend, rains are bound to be erratic.    A streak of rosy paint here is that the rice genome has been completely mapped.  Scientists should feel the urgency in genetically engineering rice and other crop varieties that could withstand higher temperature and drought, the inevitable consequences of climate change. 

Another ray of hope : Geneticist Craig Venter   is  absolutely convinced that  his  “Fourth generation fuel” project   will be ready  in about 18 months.  He is focused on genetically  modifying  mictobes  to accept  CO₂   and give out  octane in return.  Not that such microbes don’t exist.  They do, but   octane yields are  pitifully low, nowhere near the needs of humankind. Venter is confident  that   genetic engineering is the answer. His own words  "We have 20 million genes which I call the design components of the future. We are limited here only by our imagination."

Prabha R. Chatterji

1. Climate Change, Deforestation and the Fate of  the Amazon

    Malhi et al Science, 2008,  319 p 169-172

2. Switch to corn promotes Amazon Deforestation

    W. Laurence  Science 2007,  318, 1721

3. Land clearing and biofuel  Carbon debts.

   Fargione et al Science 2008, 1235

4.Use of US  cropland  for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions 

    from land use change

    Searchinger  et al Science  2008, 319, 1238

5. Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for  Food security in 2030

    Lobell et al  Science 2008, 319 p607-610

6. Craig Venter at the Technology, Entertainment and Design conference in Monterey, California. Feb. 2008